Dialled in with Ross Crane: Co-founder and CEO of Subdial
In an industry which has been around for nigh on 200 years, it takes a serious shift to modernise antiquated commercial processes around to meet the evolving needs and demands of consumers in the 21st century. How can you update the practices surrounding a product valued purely for its mechanical engineering and lack of electronics or technology? Subdial has the answer.
10to2 sat down with Subdial’s co-founder and CEO, Ross Crane, to discuss how Subdial came to fruition, explore how data is used to create lasting purchasing experiences, and examine recent and future market trends.
From watch lovers to data-driven disruptors
“My business partner and I both had a passion for watches, and we wanted to use data and a technology first approach to deliver a step change in the experience of trading watches” so in 2017, they decided to launch Subdial. “The purchasing journey of second-hand watches was starting to change – from a tired, worn retail store on some back lane, through to a more e-commerce focus led by the likes of Watchfinder”.
Ross credits Watchfinder with dragging the industry out of the shadows by offering the end-user authenticity checks, an easy-to-use website, servicing options and exploding the possibilities to sell their watches to an untapped audience.
“We wanted to go further, using data to deliver a more accurate trading experience and a platform that reduced friction and made the whole process more enjoyable” To kick-start this, Ross and the team bootstrapped the early stages to get Subdial up and running, funding the creation of their own data model. The mission? “To see if data could be used to trade more effectively than our competitors, delivering better returns to customers through increased accuracy and removing the guesswork”
For the first few years the data was used only for Subdials own trading. “We looked to predict two things, how much will this watch sell for and how quickly? If you know those two things with a high degree of accuracy, you can effectively establish a bid-offer spread on a model by model basis.”
Fast forward to the present, Subdial is now a network focussed digital platform that empowers signed-up members with a wealth of data points and easy-to-digest market analysis on the watches they own. This applies to watches in their collection as well as those on their wish list while they consider their next purchase.
Our data is so precise that we can accurately predict how long a product will remain on our site within ±10 days for the most traded models and estimate the sales price within ±2%
These tight tolerances ensure that every transaction – whether a consignment through Subdial or a direct stock purchase – is both fair and commercially viable for all parties.
The ability to pivot and support clients in consolidating multiple watches into a single grail watch purchase means leveraging Subdial’s own capital to buy the watches, ensuring that the final transaction is never missed.
More than a marketplace
So, how does Subdial continue to stand in contention alongside the existing giants such as Rolex Certified Pre-owned or Watchfinder or Watchbox (now ‘The 1916 Company’)? “We provide a marketplace as well as acting as a market-maker within that market (providing liquidity when needed). Everyone else essentially does one or the other, but doing both is crucial to a healthy market and a great customer experience”.
This doesn’t mean the advice of ‘buying the seller’ is any less relevant, or being able to negotiate a different price, it simply means that the buyer and seller can be more informed and ultimately protected against common malpractice.
The focus on data is not hidden away; it has transformed Subdial to be a market leader in partnership creation to share and extrapolate this vast amount of information to create meaningful insights for everyone to enjoy. “We have partnered with Bloomberg to publish our Market Index, global watch indexing of the 50 most traded pre-owned watch references in the world, tracked over time and weighted for their importance. We have also published our first ‘Big Watch Survey’ in 2024”. As they say, data is king & Subdial is able to cater to a broader set of demands, renewing focus on the ‘Collection’ and ‘Wishlist’ functionality on the platform.
GW: “How are the add-on services managed and utilised across your platform?”
RC: “We have two core areas for our members. The first is ‘Collections’—a space where you can manage any watch you own, regardless of purchase origin. Our platform provides real-time market insights, helping you track value trends with precision.”
Your collection can be set to private, visible only to you, or made public for others to explore and bid on. Additionally, we’ve partnered with Zing to offer seamless insurance coverage for any watch up to £100K, directly accessible through your collection.
If you have a watch in mind but haven’t committed yet, or you’ve been tracking market trends…
RC: “The second core area is the ‘Wish List.’ This feature connects buyers and sellers, bringing together those searching for a rare piece with those looking to sell. Essentially, it turns sourcing into a direct channel for our wider client base.”
Platform – understood! Now…
It is not just the digital platform that puts Subdial head and shoulders above the rest. Subdial have inhouse watch makers to check that all watches are authentic and match client descriptions. “The authentication process is extremely rigorous, some manufacturers make it more challenging than others, but nothing slips past us” – They also stand by every watch they sell for the entire lifetime of the watch, any issues? They will sort it.
The Big Watch Survey 2024
This year was the inaugural Big Watch survey, undertaken in partnership with WatchPro and Bloomberg. To capture the broadest possible range of response, it was shared with all parties’ customers. “We wanted to get our fingers on the pulse, for what new, regular or seasoned collectors were thinking”. Ross felt that the industry needed a refreshing perception and wanted to attempt a more-realistic capture of opinions in comparison to the expertly chosen GPHG awards.
Now the results are in, and the data has been crunched, what were the results and were there any surprises?
The good
“Cartier was a clear standout of a brand who is enjoying a huge amount of success. They are leveraging their back catalogue and using that inspiration to release modern variants which are proving to be a resounding hit.”
We’d be hard pressed not to talk about the winner, the white-dialled Omega Speedmaster. “It was apparent that this was a highly anticipated release – Omega had a solid year in general with other releases such as the no-date Seamasters. With this Speedmaster, there isn’t much not to like about it, it’s a solid watch”.
The bad
Not every brand had the best year in 2024, and seismic events have left a lasting ripple, leaving a bad taste in some consumers’ mouths.
“Sadly, this year, Bremont took a dive, and the rebrand didn’t land well. The shift in direction didn’t resonate.”
10to2 saw this firsthand during a recent trip to Bremont’s ‘Wing’ at Henley-on-Thames, just before the rebrand. We were fortunate to witness the recent investments in new machinery aimed at accelerating British watchmaking, but post-Watches of Wonders 2024, everything changed. The foundations were ripped up and laid in a completely different way.
“The old logo represented what the brand stood for, and the new one has caused confusion. Bremont was, or perhaps still is, frustrating – they never had their 911 moment establishing the key model that has good residuals.”
What is the Porsche 911 phenomenon? Evolution, not revolution. This applies across the entire watch world. Rolex with the Submariner, Patek with the Nautilus, AP with the Royal Oak – product lines that have been around for so long with minimal change. It’s easier for consumers to connect the product to the brand, knowing that any new release won’t make their beloved piece obsolete.
“Constant limited editions make it difficult for the second-hand watch market. If everything is limited, nothing feels special and market prices are hard to establish. If there’s no confidence in re-sale value, it’s much much harder to convince someone on the ‘new’ in-boutique purchase.”
The observation
RC: “The watch market is becoming increasingly similar to the art and fine-wine industries. New releases make up only a fraction of what’s available, and collectors often take time to develop an appreciation for certain models.”
As tastes and trends evolve, back catalogues become even more intriguing. “Take the Rolex Submariner, for example. A recent book detailed its production numbers, and when scaled against the values we track, there’s an estimated £50 billion worth of Submariners in existence – that’s a staggering amount of money and choice in one watch alone.”
GW: “Submariners are iconic, but there are so many brands and models available at that price point, you could argue the sub is a little boring! Leveraging the data, what market trends have you noticed, and where do you foresee habits going in 2025?”
Buying behaviour has shifted significantly. Watches that have been on the platform for some time can suddenly receive five inquiries out of nowhere – often, we realise that a YouTube video has just highlighted that particular model or reference. The product itself hasn’t changed, yet overnight market shifts continuously spark newfound interest. Price, personal taste, and consumed media all shape an individual’s discovery process, making it both a challenge and a thrill to help them find their next watch.
As for what 2025 has in store, Ross continues:
“Cartier’s success is undeniable; they remain one of the biggest watch brands in the world. While they primarily produce smaller watches, aside from a few Santos models, I see this trend continuing. Meanwhile, obscure JLC’s and unusual Patek’s are my picks. They tend to fly under the radar and appeal to a different audience, especially with prices appearing relatively stable.”
Analysing market data, Ross also notes a decline in demand for smaller independent watch brands. “I’m a big fan of brands like Ming & I own one myself, they’ve have the courage to do something dfferent but also established a very recognisable design aesthetic. However, demand seems to be lower now, as buyers are choosing them independents based on personal preference rather than as ‘hot’ investment pieces.”
Hearing firsthand from collectors and enthusiasts across all brands has provided invaluable insights. One thing is certain: the watch market continues to evolve. Thankfully, Ross assures us that Subdial and the team will be back next year; bigger and better than ever.
What does the future have it store for Subdial?
To round out our conversation, we wanted to hear what is next for Subdial. Towards to tail-end of 2024, Subdial had a significant £1.5m investment from original founder of Watchfinder – Stuart Hennell. Stuart sold Watchfinder to the Richemont group in 2018 for an estimated £220m.
GW: “What will you be using the investment for, and what direction is Subdial taking?”
RC: “Immediate plans are very much focused on our new clubhouse which we are creating in Farringdon. This will be our first move into a physical representation of the Subdial brand. Whilst we are on online digital trading platform, our customers want to meet us and try on pieces”.
Visits will be appointment only, but Ross highlights that anyone can make a booking. “This atmosphere will be relaxed and casual, and we encourage anyone to book and come visit us”.
GW: “Will this still utilise the data led approach the Subdial has become renowned for?”
RC: “Absolutely, the customer journey starts and ultimately ends online. We want to bring an added interaction element to anyone who needs the purchasing reassurance. We ensure that everything we do enhances the customer experience”.
It’s not just physical expansion that is on Subdial’s horizon.
RC: “We have been doing weekly drops of new watches on the platform. It’s become a corner stone of what we do”.
Every Thursday, the Subdial team launch up to 100 new watches with a combined value of anywhere between £700,000 to £1m, showcasing a diverse product portfolio that is then available for purchasing.
RC: “Our breadth of services and functionality across the platform differentiates us from the competition and helps us stand-out. Once we have the new space, we will be doing more video content to further support our drops!”.
We are looking forward to arranging a visit to the new store and can’t wait to see how it all comes together. Before we go, we couldn’t resist asking Ross what watch he is currently wearing.
“It’s the previous generation Omega Seamaster; I absolutely love this one. It’s one of the watches that has been in my collection the longest. I’ve recently put it back on the bracelet after having it on a NATO strap for ages and it feels like a new watch”
Outside of this, Ross has admitted he is going through a consolidation process. “I have too many watches that do not get enough love. Part of the fun is now reducing the collection to create a pot which will be used on a heavy hitter”.
The watch in question, top trumping every watch that Ross see’s on a daily basis… “The Patek Philippe 3940 – but I’m not sure the pot is going to have that much in it!”.
Thank you to Ross for spending time with us here at 10to2, and we implore anyone to check out Subdial’s platform, and keep an eye-on their socials for when the appointment-only clubhouse will be opened!
